During the, er, public health conference on Monday, in which acetaminophen was “linked” to autism, the president and HHS heads fumbled their way through a series of speculative and contradictory announcements.
First, recall that in April, RFK Jr promised to unveil “the cause of autism” by September. Yet all he did was announce that HHS is just now setting out to identify the cause of autism. When he labelled their work so far “unprecedented,” in actuality he simply shared a handful of correlational studies, some dating back to 2019. There’s been no original work done under this administration.
Also relevant: the NIH states that “Autism prevalence in the United States has risen from fewer than 1 in 2,000 children in the 1970s to approximately 1 in 31 today.” Thing is, autism was officially diagnosed as a subtype of schizophrenia until 1980. So yes, expanding diagnostic criteria and a more thorough understanding of the spectrum play key roles in the “increase” in numbers, no matter how hard MAHA stans claim otherwise.
Leaving aside Trump’s yelling at women—DON’T TAKE TYLENOL—repeatedly throughout the press conference, I noticed Kennedy perform a ritual he’s weaponized in the past. A common distraction technique, one that always gives him an out when challenged about his statements.
Early in his monologue, Kennedy says,
The FDA is responding to clinical and laboratory studies that suggest a potential association between acetaminophen used during pregnancy and adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes, including later diagnosis for ADHD diagnosis and autism.
Notice the careful language: “suggest” and “potential association.” This is how to actually speak about science and, I’m guessing, the exact sentence he’ll reference in the future if anyone counters the rest of his speech. His “I’m not against vaccines” line, which accounts for an infinitesimal amount of his overall vaccine rhetoric, shields him when, for example, being questioned in front of Congress.
Kennedy then abandons guardrails. He claims:
Research has revealed that folate deficiency in a child’s brain can lead to autism.
The problem: while robust evidence shows that adequate maternal folic acid intake before and during early pregnancy lowers autism risk, a direct, universal causal link between folate deficiency and autism development has not been definitively proven. Yet the qualifiers are gone.
Kennedy also states:
Historically, NIH has focused almost solely on politically safe and entirely fruitless research about the genetic drivers of autism.
While he tries to qualify it with “almost solely,” even that’s nowhere near close to reality.
The National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) and other NIH groups have funded studies on prenatal and early-life exposures to chemicals and pollutants, links between maternal illness and inflammation and autism, and how these interact with genetic risk.
Landmark projects like the CHARGE and MARBLES studies have specifically investigated the roles of environmental exposures during pregnancy, including air pollution, phthalates, and maternal metabolic conditions.
These studies also examine mechanisms such as epigenetics (how environment can modify gene expression) and immune system and neurological interactions.
Kennedy would rather have you believe that none of this work has ever happened. Imagine being an actual researcher that’s devoted their life to this work and then having an anti-vax crank dismiss it all as if it’s never happened. Yet Kennedy’s administration is pretending to be the first to dream up the idea that a “root cause” of autism can be unearthed. This sort of gaslighting is consistent with the Trump administration’s goal of rewriting as much history as possible.
Here’s the moment that really leapt out, however:
Some 40 to 70% of mothers who have children with autism believe that their child was injured by a vaccine.
As with a lot of data Kennedy mines, I’m clueless in trying to figure out where this comes from. The closest I could find is a 2021 study, which states:
Despite compelling evidence refuting associations between vaccines and autism spectrum disorder (ASD), up to 40% of parents of children with ASD believe that vaccines contributed to or caused their child’s condition.
Crucial to this data: this study relies on data collected at one Texas hospital—a state with an increasing amount of anti-vax fervency. And “up to" 40%” does not equal “40-70%.”
Also overlooked: Kennedy’s outsized role in spreading propaganda that would help mothers believe this connection exists, even though decades of credible research state otherwise.
MAHA math is MAGA math reframed as science.
When Trump claimed that he’s going to lower drug prices by 1,500%, everyone laughed, save those in his camp. Never mind the fact that your $100 prescription would not only be free, but come with $1,400 (perhaps in a potato chip bag). Not only has Trump never corrected this statement, he regularly repeats it, even as (or because of the fact) he’s about to slap a 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals produced overseas which, if you do actual math, will raise the price of drugs by…double.
That’s not the only recent MAGA math. Earlier this month, he said, with a straight face, that 300 million people died last year from drugs—roughly 80% of the US population. Or 800%. Who knows at this point.
Confusion and inconsistencies are powerful weapons that keep people distracted from the actual policies going on, like Trump cancelling the tracking of food insecurity just as it’s announced that 820,000 residents in the DC region are suffering from food insecurity.
Numbers don’t matter if you stop looking for them.
Then you can insert whatever numbers you like. Trump has always tampered with the ledger, so it’s no surprise that his favorite Kennedy is doing the same.